Forecast next quarter
It's the second-last week of the quarter. The investor / board / cofounder asks: "what will Q3 look like?" You don't want to make it up. You also don't want to spend three hours building a spreadsheet model.
Five minutes. One question. One number. One confidence interval.
The scene
You have a pipeline. Some of it will close. Most of it won't. The honest answer to "what will we do next quarter?" depends on:
- The total pipeline value
- How much of it is realistically going to convert
- What your team's actual close rate has been on similar deals
- Seasonality (is there a Diwali / FY-end slowdown?)
Doing this math by hand takes hours. The Sales agent does it in seconds, and shows its work.
The steps
1. Ask the Planner
In chat:
Forecast revenue for next quarter.
That's it. Sit back.
2. Read the answer
You'll get back something like:
Forecast for Q3 (Jul–Sep): ₹38–46 lakh, with 75% confidence centring on ₹42L.
Math:
- Open pipeline: ₹68L across 24 deals
- Weighted by stage probability: ₹31L expected close
- Plus mid-quarter pipeline growth (based on your trailing-90-day inflow): ₹11L
- Minus seasonal drag (Q3 historically converts 12% lower in our cohort): -₹1L
Top two risk factors:
- Three deals worth ₹14L combined are in 'Proposal' for >21 days — assume 30% probability instead of 60%
- Your conversion rate dropped 4 points last month — if the trend continues, ₹3L of pipeline disappears
Want me to draft the Q3 outlook for your board update?
3. Adjust assumptions if needed
The agent's defaults are your own historical conversion rate by stage. If you know something the data doesn't (a deal you're sure will close because the customer signed last week, or a deal you're sure won't because the customer just laid off your champion), you can tell the agent:
Treat the Acme deal as 95% confidence. Drop the Sunrise deal — they cancelled.
The forecast updates inline.
4. Get the deck
If you said yes to "draft the board update," the Planner builds a 5-slide deck:
- Last quarter's actual vs forecast (calibration check)
- Open pipeline + stage breakdown
- Forecast range with confidence
- Two risk factors with mitigation
- The action you'd take based on this
Edit any slide. Export as PDF or PPTX. Send.
The gotchas
Forecast confidence depends on history
If your workspace is < 60 days old, the forecast confidence is low because thola hasn't seen your team close enough deals to calibrate. The agent will say so — the range will be wide ("₹25–55L" instead of "₹38–46L") and the confidence number will drop.
Don't ignore the confidence number. A wide range honestly stated is more useful than a tight range with no basis.
Don't game the stage probabilities
Some founders raise a deal to "Negotiation" before it really is, to inflate the pipeline number. The forecast catches this — your historical conversion rate from your Negotiation stage gets used, not the textbook 60%. If your team marks deals as Negotiation prematurely, your Negotiation conversion rate is 30%, and the forecast uses 30%. Math doesn't lie.
If you want a higher forecast, do the work to actually move deals forward. Don't move them in the CRM.
Seasonality is calibrated to your industry
If you're a retail business in India, Q3 (Jul–Sep) is typically a build-up to Diwali — flat early, growing late. If you're SaaS, Q3 often shows a small dip from summer (Western buyers vacationing). The forecast accounts for industry-typical seasonality, calibrated to your cohort. You don't have to teach it.
"Tell me a number, not a range" doesn't work
The agent will refuse to give a single-point forecast. "Tell me one number" gets back "The expected value is ₹42L, but the honest answer is a range — here's why."
This is on purpose. A single number gets quoted in board meetings as a commitment. A range with a confidence interval gets quoted as a forecast. We choose forecast.
A worked example
Take a workspace with:
- ₹68L open pipeline across 24 deals
- Trailing-90-day inflow: ₹35L
- Historical conversion: 45% in Negotiation, 25% in Proposal, 10% in Qualified
- Sector: B2B SaaS, India
The forecast for next quarter ends up around ₹38–46L. You can see why:
- Weighted pipeline value: 0.45 × Negotiation deals + 0.25 × Proposal + 0.10 × Qualified = ₹31L from existing pipeline
- 30% of next quarter's intake will close in-quarter (based on your cycle): 0.30 × ₹35L = ₹11L
- Adjusted: -₹1L seasonal drag, +/- noise = ₹38–46L range, ₹42L midpoint
You can ask the agent to expand any step. It'll show its work.
What's next
- Unblock stuck deals — running this weekly tightens your forecast
- Reference → Sales scoring — the full methodology
- Run the board update Playbook — automate the quarterly investor narrative